AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar gained against the yen and the euro on Monday but pulled back from its highs of the day with investors betting on a slower pace of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes going forward. The dollar index was higher after falling 4% last week, marking its biggest weekly drop since March 2020, after data showing U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in October and prompted bets for slower hikes. While the greenback appeared to benefit earlier on Monday from hawkish investor readings of weekend comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, it lost some ground as the session wore on as investor hopes for slower hikes were renewed by Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard's comments on Monday. Waller said on Sunday that the Fed could now start thinking about hiking at a slower pace but cautioned that the inflation data was "just one data point" and that other readings are needed to show a convincing slowing in price gains. While Brainard emphasized in an interview with Bloomberg that the Fed has more work to do, she signaled that it will likely slow its tightening pace soon as it figures out how high borrowing costs need to go and for how long in order to bring down inflation. And he noted that Brainard's comments boosted equity sentiment, which dragged on the dollar on Monday. Investors had seen Waller's comments as cold water on hopes for a "rapid Fed recalibration," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive in Toronto. This had helped the dollar index, which gauges the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies including the euro, yen, and sterling, rise as much as 0.93% to 107.274 before it pulled back to last trade up 0.4% at 106.73. ECB board member Fabio Panetta said on Monday that the central bank must keep raising rates but needs to avoid overtightening, as doing so could destroy productive capacity and deepen an economic downturn. Data had showed on Monday that euro zone industrial production rose much more than expected in September, and output for August was revised upwards too. Economists said that may be partly due to manufacturers front-loading production before energy-related disruptions this winter. Sterling fell ahead of British Chancellor Jeremy Gaunt's autumn statement on Thursday when he is expected to set out tax rises and spending cuts. The pound was down 0.55% at $1.1770, having risen 4% in the previous two sessions, touching on Friday its highest level since late August. China's onshore yuan rose to nearly a two-month high against the dollar, coinciding with its central bank's official guidance and a broad lift in Chinese market sentiment on moves to help its embattled property sector and a decision to ease some of the country's strict COVID-19 restrictions.
  • Gold prices hovered near three-month highs on Tuesday as mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials on the path of U.S. interest rates kept the dollar pinned to recent lows, while copper prices sank as rising COVID-19 cases in major importer China pointed to more potential demand disruption. Fed officials Lael Brainard and Christopher Waller said this week that the U.S. central bank is likely to hike rates at a slower pace in the coming months. But they also suggested that the bank’s hiking cycle was far from over, and that stubbornly high inflation warranted much more tightening. While slower raises in interest rates will likely provide some near-term relief to gold and other metal prices, a steady rise in U.S. rates is likely to dent appeal for the yellow metal in the long run. Markets are now pricing in an over 80% chance that the Fed will hike rates by a relatively smaller 50 basis points in December. But the hike will still put interest rates at their highest since the 2008 financial crisis. Rising U.S. interest rates weighed heavily on metal markets this year, as higher yields on Treasuries ramped up the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. But while gold is still off substantially from its annual highs, the metal is now close to breaking even for the year. Recent gains saw the yellow metal sharply pare its year-to-date losses to about 3%. Among industrial metals, copper prices took little support from a weaker dollar, trading lower after tumbling nearly 3% on Monday. This is expected to weigh on commodity demand in the country, given that several industrial hubs - including Shanghai and Wuhan - are now facing renewed lockdown measures. A series of COVID lockdowns in China ground economic activity to a halt this year, severely crimping the country’s appetite for commodity imports.
  • Oil prices slid on Tuesday as rising COVID-19 cases in China sparked fears of lower fuel consumption from the world's top crude oil importer and after OPEC cut its 2022 global demand forecast. While investors cheered China's announcements last week that it would lessen the impact of a strict zero-COVID policy to spur economic activity and energy demand, analysts said lockdowns and surging case numbers continue to be a key downside risk. The country's factory output growth slowed, retail sales fell and property slumped further in October, the latest sign that the world's second-largest economy is losing momentum as it struggles with protracted COVID curbs and a property downturn. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut its 2022 global oil demand growth forecast for a fifth time since April, citing mounting economic challenges including high inflation and rising interest rates. This comes after the International Monetary Fund said on Sunday the global economic outlook has become gloomier than projected last month, citing a steady worsening in purchasing manager surveys in recent months. The EU embargo on Russian oil, in retaliation to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, is set to start on Dec. 5. The ban will be followed by a halt on oil product imports in February. U.S. crude oil stocks were expected to have dropped by about 300,000 barrels in the week to Nov. 11, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. Elsewhere, oil output in the Permian Basin is set to hit another record of 5.499 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its monthly productivity report on Monday. However, aging shale regions are showing weaker per-well output, causing overall U.S. crude oil production in shale regions to rise by a mere 91,000 bpd to 9.191 million bpd in December, despite a surge in prices, the EIA said.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
15th November 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,774-1,781 1,790 1,800-1,807
Silver-XAG 22.10-22.50 23.00 23.30-23.70
Crude Oil 85.85-87.00 87.90-88.90 89.60-90.30
EURO/USD 1.0390-1.0450 1.0490-1.0520 1.0546
GBP/USD 1.1790-1.1820 1.1870 1.1900-1.1950
USD/JPY 140.80-141.20 142.10-143.00 143.80-144.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
15th November 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,766-1,759 1,750-1,736 1,724-1,716
Silver-XAG 21.90-21.05 20.70-20.10 19.80-18.90
Crude Oil 84.45-83.70 82.55-81.20 80.60-79.50
EURO/USD 1.0290-1.0210 1.0150-1.0105 1.0099-1.0050
GBP/USD 1.1750-1.1680 1.1610-1.1495 1.1350-1.1310
USD/JPY 140.20-139.50 138.50-137.80 137.00-136.60

Intra-Day Strategy (15th November 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1774.95/oz and low of $1753.18/oz. Gold is up by 0.355% at US$1771.05/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1766-1800 keeping stop loss closing above 1800, targeting 1750-1736-1700 and 1690-1670-1652. Buy in between 1750-1690 with risk below 1640, targeting 1766-1774-1781 and 1790-1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,766-1,759
S2     1,750-1,736
S3     1,724-1,716
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,774-1,781
R2     1,790
R3     1,800-1,807

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

68.920

Buy
20-DMA   1683.42 Sell
50-DMA  

1687.12

Sell
100-DMA   1718.28 Sell
200-DMA   1759.13 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   94.244 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   14.868 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$22.08/oz and low of US21.28/oz settled up by 1.552% at US$21.97/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 21.90-18.30, targeting 22.00-22.50-23.00 and 23.30-23.70 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 22.10-23.40 with stop loss above 23.40; targeting 21.70-21.30-20.70-20.10 and 19.80-18.90-18.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     21.90-21.05
S2     20.70-20.10
S3     19.80-18.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     22.10-22.50
R2     23.00
R3     23.30-23.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   67.179 Buy
20-DMA   19.88 Buy
50-DMA   19.59 Buy
100-DMA   19.93 Buy
200-DMA   20.91 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.110 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.112 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$89.08/bbl, an intraday low of US$89.08/bbl, and settled down by 4.08% to close at US$84.59/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 85.90-93.40 with stop loss at 93.40; targeting 84.45-83.70-82.55 and 81.20-80.60-79.50. Buy above 84.40-79.70 with risk daily closing below 79.50; targeting 85.85-87.90 and 88.90-89.60-91.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     84.45-83.70
S2     82.55-81.20
S3     80.60-79.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     85.85-87.00
R2     87.90-88.90
R3     89.60-90.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.370 Sell
20-DMA   86.62 Buy
50-DMA   87.18 Buy
100-DMA   90.02 Sell
200-DMA   90.69 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   37.486 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.501 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0271/EUR, a high of US$1.0358/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.081% to close at US$1.0326/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0365-1.0545, targeting 1.0290-1.0210-1.0150 and 1.0105-1.0099-1.0050 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0545. Buy above 1.0290-1.0050 with risk below 1.0050 targeting 1.0350-1.0390-1.0450 and 1.0490-1.0520-1.0546.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0290-1.0210
S2     1.0150-1.0105
S3     1.0099-1.0050

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0390-1.0450
R2     1.0490-1.0520
R3     1.0546

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   67.314 Buy
20-DMA   1.0040 Sell
50-DMA   0.9980 Buy
100-DMA   1.0088 Buy
200-DMA   1.0386 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   93.455 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0109 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1709/GBP, a high of US$1.1855/GBP, and settled the day down 0.295% to close at US$1.1754/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2113) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.1750-1.1310 with a target of 1.1820-1.1870 and 1.1900-1.1950 with a stop loss closing below 1.0640 Sell in between 1.1820-1.1950 with targets at 1.1750-1.1680-1.1610-1.1495 and 1.1370-1.1310-1.1270 with stop loss should be 1.1825.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1750-1.1680
S2     1.1610-1.1495
S3     1.1350-1.1310

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.1790-1.1820
R2     1.1870
R3     1.1900-1.1950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

59.571

Buy
20-DMA   1.1509 Buy
50-DMA   1.1479 Buy
100-DMA   1.1683 Buy
200-DMA   1.2119 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   87.572 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0071 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made an intra‐day low of JPY138.46/USD and made an intraday high of JPY142.47/USD and settled the day down by 1.545% at JPY138.77/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 140.80-144.50 with risk above 144.50 targeting 140.20-139.50-138.50-137.80 and 137.00-136.60. Long positions above 140.20-136.60 with targets of 140.80-141.20-142.10 and 143.00-143.80-144.50 with stops below 143.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     140.20-139.50
S2     138.50-137.80
S3     137.00-136.60

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     140.80-141.20
R2     142.10-143.00
R3     143.80-144.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.453 Buy
20-DMA   144.67 Buy
50-DMA   144.15 Buy
100-DMA   140.81 Buy
200-DMA   134.44 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   13.733 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.290 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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