AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was supported by stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales data on Wednesday as investors also looked for clues from Federal Reserve speakers on the path for interest rates. But the euro gained against the greenback and the yen as geopolitical concerns eased after Poland and NATO said on Wednesday that Tuesday's explosion, which killed two in Poland, was probably from a stray missile from Ukraine's air defenses and not an intentional Russian strike. The euro was last up 0.33% at $1.0388 but still below the four-and-a-half month peak of $1.0481 it touched Tuesday when U.S. producer price inflation data was below expectations. While it was well off its session high of the day, the euro more than erased Tuesday's losses against the yen. It was last up 0.46% against the Japanese currency. Tuesday's U.S. data had suggested last week's cooler-than-expected consumer price inflation was not a one-off, fueling hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve can slow aggressive rate hikes that had sent the dollar soaring against the pound, euro and yen this year. Then on Wednesday the Commerce Department said that October retail sales rose 1.3% compared with economist expectations for 1.0%, with estimates ranging from a 0.1% drop to a 2.0% jump. Meanwhile, two key policy doves argued on Wednesday that while the European Central Bank must continue to raise interest rates, there is a growing case for increased caution in policy tightening after a string of aggressive moves. Also, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, an early and outspoken "hawk," said the Fed has a ways to go on rates and will still need increases into next year although he added that data made him "more comfortable" with the idea of slowing to a 50-basis point hike in December. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told CNBC it's reasonable for the Fed to raise its policy rate to a 4.75%-5.25% range by early next year, and that pausing rate hikes is not part of the discussion. Elsewhere, data released on Wednesday showed inflation in Britain - in contrast with the United States - continues to rise, hitting a 41-year high in the 12 months to October. Britain is set to announce a new budget on Thursday with expectations for tax hikes and spending cuts. The pound fell to a record low of $1.0327 in September after finance minister Jeremy Hunt's predecessor Kwasi Kwarteng announced a package of unfunded tax cuts.
  • Gold prices fell from a key resistance level on Thursday as the metal’s safe haven demand diminished on waning fears of an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while copper prices fell further on concerns over a COVID outbreak in China. Bullion prices also saw an element of profit taking after strong gains in four of the past five sessions, and still traded near a three-month high. Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,773.88 an ounce, while gold futures were unchanged at around $1,777.0 an ounce by 17:00 ET (00:00 GMT). Waning fears of a potential escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict also sapped safe haven demand for the metal, after NATO members said a missile that killed two people in Poland was likely fired by Ukrainian forces defending themselves against a Russian missile barrage. Prices of the yellow metal rallied in recent sessions as the dollar retreated on expectations of a less hawkish Federal Reserve, especially as softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data pointed to easing price pressures. A slew of Fed members also said they supported smaller rate hikes to avoid a potential recession. Markets are now pricing in an over 90% chance that the Fed will hike rates by a relatively smaller 50 basis points in December. Rising interest rates were the biggest weight on gold prices this year, as higher yields pushed up the opportunity cost of holding the yellow metal. But analysts said that the metal may see better prospects thanks to easing U.S. inflation. The dollar steadied on Thursday and kept to a tight range as investors awaited more cues on the U.S. economy. Among industrial metals, copper prices were flat on Thursday after a 1.6% drop in the prior session, amid continued concerns over slowing economic growth in major consumer China. Weaker-than-expected economic readings from China this notion, as the country grapples with its worst COVID-19 outbreak in six months. This has largely offset signs of tightening copper supply, caused by disruptions in major producers Chile and Peru.
  • Oil prices extended declines on Thursday as concerns over geopolitical tensions eased, while rising numbers of COVID-19 cases in China added to demand worries in the world's largest crude importer. On Wednesday Brent dropped by 1.1% and WTI 1.5% after Russian oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary restarted. Poland and military alliance NATO said on Wednesday that a missile which crashed inside NATO member Poland was probably a stray fired by Ukraine's air defences and not a Russian strike, easing fears of the war between Russian and Ukraine spilling across the border. Prices also struggled for direction after a mixed inventory report from the Energy Information Administration, he said. Crude stocks in the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, fell by 5.4 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 11 to 435.4 million barrels, the EIA said on Wednesday, much steeper than the 440,000-barrel drop forecast in a Reuters poll. However, inventories of gasoline and distillate fuels both rose by more than expectations. More oil is set to flow to the United States as TC Energy lifted a force majeure on its 622,000-barrel-per-day Keystone pipeline that supplies the Midwest and Gulf Coast that had reduced shipments by 7%. Sustained concerns about weak demand in China are also "keeping markets grounded," said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. China's COVID caseload is small compared with the rest of the world, but it maintains stringent policies to quash out cases before they further spread. China's National Health Commission on Thursday reported 23,276 new daily COVID-19 infections.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
17th November 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,774-1,781 1,790 1,800-1,807
Silver-XAG 21.90-22.10 22.50-23.00 23.30-23.70
Crude Oil 85.85-87.00 87.90-88.90 89.60-90.30
EURO/USD 1.0390-1.0450 1.0490-1.0520 1.0546
GBP/USD 1.1900-1.1950 1.2030 1.2090-1.2120
USD/JPY 140.20-140.80 141.20-142.10 143.00-143.80

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
17th November 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,759 1,750-1,736 1,724-1,716
Silver-XAG 21.05 20.70-20.10 19.80-18.90
Crude Oil 83.70 82.55-81.20 80.60-79.50
EURO/USD 1.0290-1.0210 1.0150-1.0105 1.0099-1.0050
GBP/USD 1.1870-1.1790 1.1750-1.1680 1.1610-1.1495
USD/JPY 139.20-138.50 137.80 137.00-136.60

Intra-Day Strategy (17th November 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1784.94/oz and low of $1770.24/oz. Gold is down by 0.271% at US$1773.72/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1774-1800 keeping stop loss closing above 1800, targeting 1766-1759-1750 and 1736-1700-1690. Buy in between 1759-1690 with risk below 1640, targeting 1774-1781 and 1790-1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,759
S2     1,750-1,736
S3     1,724-1,716
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,774-1,781
R2     1,790
R3     1,800-1,807

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

66.032

Buy
20-DMA   1713.09 Buy
50-DMA  

1699.96

Buy
100-DMA   1722.58 Buy
200-DMA   1759.73 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.244 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   27.868 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$22.03/oz and low of US21.38/oz settled down by 0.408% at US$21.46/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 21.50-18.30, targeting 22.00-22.50-23.00 and 23.30-23.70 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 22.10-23.40 with stop loss above 23.40; targeting 21.70-21.30-20.70-20.10 and 19.80-18.90-18.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     21.05
S2     20.70-20.10
S3     19.80-18.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     21.90-22.10
R2     22.50-23.00
R3     23.30-23.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   67.179 Buy
20-DMA   19.88 Buy
50-DMA   19.59 Buy
100-DMA   19.93 Buy
200-DMA   20.91 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.110 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.112 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$86.87/bbl, an intraday low of US$83.64/bbl, and settled down by 1.784% to close at US$84.64/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 85.90-93.40 with stop loss at 93.40; targeting 84.45-83.70-82.55 and 81.20-80.60-79.50. Buy above 84.40-79.70 with risk daily closing below 79.50; targeting 85.85-87.90 and 88.90-89.60-91.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     83.70
S2     82.55-81.20
S3     80.60-79.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     85.85-87.00
R2     87.90-88.90
R3     89.60-90.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.370 Sell
20-DMA   86.62 Buy
50-DMA   87.18 Buy
100-DMA   90.02 Sell
200-DMA   90.69 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   37.486 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.501 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0330/EUR, a high of US$1.0438/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.45% to close at US$1.0393/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0365-1.0545, targeting 1.0290-1.0210-1.0150 and 1.0105-1.0099-1.0050 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0545. Buy above 1.0290-1.0050 with risk below 1.0050 targeting 1.0350-1.0390-1.0450 and 1.0490-1.0520-1.0546.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0290-1.0210
S2     1.0150-1.0105
S3     1.0099-1.0050

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0390-1.0450
R2     1.0490-1.0520
R3     1.0546

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   68.782 Buy
20-DMA   1.0040 Sell
50-DMA   0.9980 Buy
100-DMA   1.0088 Buy
200-DMA   1.0386 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   93.455 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0109 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1829/GBP, a high of US$1.1941/GBP, and settled the day up 0.436% to close at US$1.1911/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2113) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.1870-1.1310 with a target of 1.1900-1.1950-1.2030 and 1.2090-1.2120 with a stop loss closing below 1.0640. Sell in between 1.1900-1.2120 with targets at 1.1870-1.1790-1.1750 and 1.1680-1.1610-1.1495 with stop loss should be 1.2120.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1870-1.1790
S2     1.1750-1.1680
S3     1.1610-1.1495

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.1900-1.1950
R2     1.2030
R3     1.2090-1.2120

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.957

Buy
20-DMA   1.1552 Buy
50-DMA   1.1498 Buy
100-DMA   1.1689 Buy
200-DMA   1.2119 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   78.021 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0012 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of JPY138.72/USD and made an intraday high of JPY140.28/USD and settled the day up by 0.442% at JPY139.43/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 140.20-144.50 with risk above 144.50 targeting 140.20-139.50-138.50-137.80 and 137.00-136.60. Long positions above 139.60-136.60 with targets of 140.80-141.20-142.10 and 143.00-143.80-144.50 with stops below 143.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     139.20-138.50
S2     137.80
S3     137.00-136.60

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     140.20-140.80
R2     141.20-142.10
R3     143.00-143.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.453 Buy
20-DMA   144.67 Buy
50-DMA   144.15 Buy
100-DMA   140.81 Buy
200-DMA   134.44 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   13.733 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.290 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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