AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar was firmly higher against major currencies on Monday, while China's yuan slipped as sentiment was soured by rising COVID cases and tightening restrictions in some cities in the world's second-biggest economy. China's capital Beijing reported two deaths for Nov. 20, with the city's most populous district urging residents to stay at home on Monday, extending a request from the weekend as the country fights numerous COVID-19 flare ups. The rising cases and the new deaths have cast doubt on the hopes of an early easing in strict pandemic restrictions that have stifled the economy. The People's Daily newspaper, the mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, on Monday published an article reiterating the need to catch infections early but avoid taking a "one-size-fits-all" approach. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major peers, rose 0.412% to 107.330 on Monday, touching its highest level since Nov. 11. The index advanced 0.5% last week, clocking its biggest weekly gain in a month as investors flocked to the safe haven currency. Despite Monday's gains, the index remains on pace for its worst monthly performance since July 2020. Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have helped the dollar stabilise after its sharp losses earlier in November, when slightly cooler than anticipated inflation data fanned investor hopes of a slowdown in interest rate hikes. Investors will be keenly interested in the minutes from the Fed's November meeting due to be released on Wednesday for any hints on how high officials ultimately expect to raise interest rates.
  • Gold prices moved little on Monday but hovered around key support levels as markets sought more clarity on the path of U.S. monetary policy in the coming months, while copper prices were muted as more COVID disruptions in China appeared set to dent demand. The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s previous meeting are set to release on Thursday, and are likely to provide more insight into how the central bank intends to proceed with raising interest rates. While markets are pricing in the possibility of a relatively smaller rate hike in December after inflation eased more than expected in recent months, recent comments from Fed members suggested that interest rates could keep rising for longer than expected. This outlook is positive for the dollar and Treasury yields, and is likely to weigh on metal markets. The greenback appeared to have found a bottom after recent losses, and rose 0.1% to 107 on Monday. A series of sharp rate hikes by the Fed weighed heavily on metal markets this year, as rising yields dented the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold. While metal markets rallied earlier this month on signs of easing U.S. inflation, they are expected to remain pressured in the coming months, given that inflation is still trending well above the Fed’s annual 2% target. Among industrial metals, copper prices moved little on Monday after logging bruising losses last week on concerns over major importer China. China locked down more parts of the country, as it grapples with its worst COVID outbreak in seven months. Economic growth in the country slowed drastically this year under the country’s strict zero-COVID policy, which saw the imposition of a slew of disruptive lockdowns. This weighed on the country’s appetite for commodities. Growing fears of a global recession also dampened the outlook for copper, despite signs of tightening supply.
  • Oil prices dropped to near two-month lows on Monday, sliding around $1 a barrel, as supply fears receded while concerns over fuel demand from China and U.S. dollar strength weighed on prices. Brent crude futures for January had slipped 87 cents, or 1%, to $86.75 a barrel by 0436 GMT. New COVID case numbers in China remained close to April peaks as the country battles outbreaks nationwide and in major cities. Schools in Beijing districts buckled down for online classes on Monday after officials asked residents to stay home amid rising cases. The front-month Brent crude futures spread narrowed sharply last week while WTI flipped into a contango, reflecting dwindling supply concerns. Meanwhile, tight crude supplies in Europe have eased as refiners have piled up stocks ahead of the Dec. 5 European Union embargo on Russian crude, putting pressure on physical crude markets across Europe, Africa and the United States. The EU's energy policy chief told Reuters the EU expected to have its regulations completed in time for the introduction of a G7 plan to cap the price of Russian crude on Dec. 5. While North Sea and West African spot market indicators are far from strong, they are also not suggesting signs of distress, he added. Diesel markets remained tight, with Europe and the United States competing for barrels. While China nearly doubled its diesel exports in October from a year earlier to 1.06 million tonnes, the volume was well below September's 1.73 million tonnes.
  • Demand in China, the world's top crude importer, remains bogged down by COVID restrictions while expectations of further interest rate rises elsewhere have elevated the greenback, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for investors.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
21st November 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,750-1,759 1,774-1,781 1,790-1,800
Silver-XAG 21.05-21.90 22.10-22.50 23.00-23.30
Crude Oil 85.85-87.00 87.90-88.90 89.60-90.30
EURO/USD 1.0290-1.0390 1.0450-1.0490 1.05201.0546
GBP/USD 1.1870-1.1900 1.1950-1.2030 1.2090-1.2120
USD/JPY 140.80 141.20-142.10 143.00-143.80

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
21st November 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,736-1,724 1,716 1,705-1,690
Silver-XAG 20.70-20.06 19.80-18.90 18.50-18.00
Crude Oil 83.70 82.55-81.20 80.60-79.50
EURO/USD 1.0210 1.0150-1.0105 1.0099-1.0050
GBP/USD 1.1790 1.1750-1.1680 1.1610-1.1495
USD/JPY 140.20-139.20 138.50-137.80 137.00-136.60

Intra-Day Strategy (21st November 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1767.62/oz and low of $1747.47/oz. Gold is down by 0.544% at US$1750.61/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1750-1800 keeping stop loss closing above 1800, targeting and 1736-1724 and 1716-1700-1690. Buy in between 1744-1690 with risk below 1640, targeting 1750-1759-1774 and 1781-1790-1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,736-1,724
S2     1,716
S3     1,705-1,690
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,750-1,759
R2     1,774-1,781
R3     1,790-1,800

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

60.234

Buy
20-DMA   1719.17 Buy
50-DMA  

1703.53

Buy
100-DMA   1723.51 Buy
200-DMA   1759.46 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   15.050 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   25.865 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$21.28/oz and low of US20.83/oz settled down by 0.167% at US$20.93/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 21.50-18.30, targeting 22.00-22.50-23.00 and 23.30-23.70 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 22.10-23.40 with stop loss above 23.40; targeting 21.70-21.30-20.70-20.10 and 19.80-18.90-18.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     20.70-20.06
S2     19.80-18.90
S3     18.50-18.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     21.05-21.90
R2     22.10-22.50
R3     23.00-23.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.314 Buy
20-DMA   20.64 Buy
50-DMA   20.06 Buy
100-DMA   20.13 Buy
200-DMA   20.13 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.110 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.112 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$86.87/bbl, an intraday low of US$83.64/bbl, and settled down by 1.784% to close at US$84.64/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 80.90-85.90 with stop loss at 86.00; targeting 84.45-83.70-82.55 and 81.20-80.60-79.50. Buy above 79.00-76.00 with risk daily closing below 76.00; targeting 80.10-81.20-82.50 and 83.40-84.55-85.85.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     83.70
S2     82.55-81.20
S3     80.60-79.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     85.85-87.00
R2     87.90-88.90
R3     89.60-90.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.370 Sell
20-DMA   86.62 Buy
50-DMA   87.18 Buy
100-DMA   90.02 Sell
200-DMA   90.69 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   37.486 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.501 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0312/EUR, a high of US$1.0395/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.333% to close at US$1.0324/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0290-1.0545, targeting 1.0210-1.0150 and 1.0105-1.0099-1.0050 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0545. Buy above 1.0210-1.0050 with risk below 1.0050 targeting 1.0350-1.0390-1.0450 and 1.0490-1.0520-1.0546.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0210
S2     1.0150-1.0105
S3     1.0099-1.0050

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0290-1.0390
R2     1.0450-1.0490
R3     1.05201.0546

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   68.782 Buy
20-DMA   1.0040 Sell
50-DMA   0.9980 Buy
100-DMA   1.0088 Buy
200-DMA   1.0386 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   93.455 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0109 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1856/GBP, a high of US$1.1950/GBP, and settled the day up 0.221% to close at US$1.1887/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2113) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.1870-1.1310 with a target of 1.1900-1.1950-1.2030 and 1.2090-1.2120 with a stop loss closing below 1.0640. Sell in between 1.1900-1.2120 with targets at 1.1870-1.1790-1.1750 and 1.1680-1.1610-1.1495 with stop loss should be 1.2120.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1790
S2     1.1750-1.1680
S3     1.1610-1.1495

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.1870-1.1900
R2     1.1950-1.2030
R3     1.2090-1.2120

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.957

Buy
20-DMA   1.1552 Buy
50-DMA   1.1498 Buy
100-DMA   1.1689 Buy
200-DMA   1.2119 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   78.021 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0012 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made an intra‐day low of JPY139.62/USD and made an intraday high of JPY140.49/USD and settled the day up by 0.126% at JPY140.36/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 140.80-144.50 with risk above 144.50 targeting 140.20-139.50-138.50-137.80 and 137.00-136.60. Long positions above 140.20-136.60 with targets of 140.80-141.20-142.10 and 143.00-143.80-144.50 with stops below 143.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     140.20-139.20
S2     138.50-137.80
S3     137.00-136.60

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     140.80
R2     141.20-142.10
R3     143.00-143.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.453 Buy
20-DMA   144.67 Buy
50-DMA   144.15 Buy
100-DMA   140.81 Buy
200-DMA   134.44 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   13.733 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.290 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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