AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar retreated on Tuesday following an overnight rally that saw investors flocking to the safe-haven currency on worries over China's COVID flare ups, though cautious risk sentiment kept the greenback supported. China's capital warned on Monday that it was facing its most severe test of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a surge in COVID cases sparking fresh restriction measures. Deaths from the virus were also recorded in Beijing for the first time since late May. U.S. Treasury yields across most maturities inched higher overnight, as investors continued to re-price expectations for how high the Federal Reserve will hike rates as it attempts to bring inflation down from close to 40-year highs. Speeches from Fed speakers on Monday delivered few surprises, with Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester saying the central bank can downshift to smaller interest rate hike increments from next month. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the real-world impact of interest rate hikes is likely greater than what its short-term rate target implies. Genesis said on Monday it has no plans to file for bankruptcy imminently, though Bloomberg News reported, citing sources, that Genesis was struggling to raise fresh cash for its lending unit, and warning investors it may need to file for bankruptcy if it does not find funding.
  • The U.S. dollar rose against most major currencies on Monday, recouping recent losses, as fresh COVID-19 curbs in China fuelled worries over the global economic outlook and made traders shun riskier currencies. China's capital warned on Monday that it was facing its most severe test of the COVID-19 pandemic, shutting businesses and schools in hard-hit districts and tightening rules for entering the city as infections ticked higher in Beijing and nationally. The new cases have cast doubt on hopes that the government could soon ease its tough restrictions. That has boosted the dollar, which is seen as a safe haven in times of stress. China's onshore yuan opened at 7.1451 per dollar and weakened to a low of 7.1708, the softest level since Nov. 11. With investors taking a dim view of riskier currencies, the Australian dollar, viewed as a liquid proxy for risk appetite, sank 1.1% to a more than 1-week low of $0.66. The dollar found additional support after Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said Monday that the U.S. central bank could lift its overnight target rate above 5% if inflation does not cool off, even thought that's not her expected outcome for monetary policy Analysts also pegged some of the dollar's strength to a rebound following the sharp selloff over the last few weeks that saw the Dollar Index slip as much as 4.7% in November. Cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data had spurred investors' hopes that the Federal Reserve's dollar-boosting interest rate hikes may be set to be moderated. That had prompted traders to take profits on existing long dollar positions. Speculators' bets on the U.S. dollar swung to a net short for the first time in more than a year, according to calculations by Reuters and Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. Investors will be parsing minutes from the Fed's November meeting, due to be released on Wednesday, for any hints about the outlook for interest rates. On Monday, the stronger dollar weighed on Sterling with the British currency slipping 0.5% to $1.18225 against a strengthening U.S. dollar and as investors braced for further weakness for the pound ahead of public finances data due on Tuesday and flash PMI numbers on Wednesday. Oil prices inched higher on Tuesday as the dollar eased, but global recession worries and concerns about China's rising COVID-19 case numbers denting demand from the world's top crude oil importer weighed on sentiment.
  • Brent crude futures rose 44 cents, or 0.5%, to $87.89 by 0513 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for January began trading Tuesday, rising 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $80.34 a barrel. Both benchmarks had dived more than $5 a barrel on Monday, hitting 10-month lows, after the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported an increase of up to 500,000 barrels per day would be considered at the OPEC+ meeting on Dec. 4. Prices rebounded quickly in full after Saudi Arabian energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the kingdom is sticking with output cuts and not discussing a potential oil output increase with other OPEC oil producers, state news agency SPA reported, denying the WSJ report. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) recently cut production targets and the energy minister of de facto leader Saudi Arabia said this month that the group will remain cautious on oil production because of uncertainty about the global economy. The pullback in the U.S. dollar was the main factor supporting oil prices after Monday's rebound, CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said. A weaker greenback makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies. Concerns over oil demand amid the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate tightening and China's strict COVID lockdown policies are outweighing potential positive price drivers like a European Union embargo on Russian oil set to start on Dec. 5, Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said in a note. The ban, in retaliation to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will be followed by a halt on oil products imports in February. A G7 plan also set to take effect on Dec. 5 will allow shipping services providers to help to export Russian oil, but only at enforced low prices. But in the meantime, China's fresh nationwide spike in COVID cases has deepened concerns about its economy. Beijing shut parks and museums on Tuesday and more Chinese cities resumed mass testing. The Chinese capital on Monday warned that it is facing its most severe test of the pandemic and tightened rules for entering the city. In the United States, crude oil stocks were estimated to have dropped by about 2.2 million barrels in the week to Nov. 18, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
22nd November 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,750-1,759 1,774-1,781 1,790-1,800
Silver-XAG 21.05-21.90 22.10-22.50 23.00-23.30
Crude Oil 80.60-81.20 82.55 83.70-85.85
EURO/USD 1.0290-1.0390 1.0450-1.0490 1.05201.0546
GBP/USD 1.1870-1.1900 1.1950-1.2030 1.2090-1.2120
USD/JPY 142.10 143.00-143.80 144.50-145.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
22nd November 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,736-1,724 1,716 1,705-1,690
Silver-XAG 20.70-20.06 19.80-18.90 18.50-18.00
Crude Oil 79.50-78.70 77.90 77.00-76.10
EURO/USD 1.0210 1.0150-1.0105 1.0099-1.0050
GBP/USD 1.1790 1.1750-1.1680 1.1610-1.1495
USD/JPY 141.10-140.20 139.20-138.50 137.80–137.00

Intra-Day Strategy (22nd November 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1752.89/oz and low of $1732.46/oz. Gold is down by 0.733% at US$1737.75/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1750-1800 keeping stop loss closing above 1800, targeting and 1736-1724 and 1716-1700-1690. Buy in between 1744-1690 with risk below 1640, targeting 1750-1759-1774 and 1781-1790-1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,736-1,724
S2     1,716
S3     1,705-1,690
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,750-1,759
R2     1,774-1,781
R3     1,790-1,800

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

60.234

Buy
20-DMA   1719.17 Buy
50-DMA  

1703.53

Buy
100-DMA   1723.51 Buy
200-DMA   1759.46 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   15.050 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   25.865 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$21.00/oz and low of US20.57/oz settled down by 0.506% at US$20.83/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 21.50-18.30, targeting 22.00-22.50-23.00 and 23.30-23.70 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 22.10-23.40 with stop loss above 23.40; targeting 21.70-21.30-20.70-20.10 and 19.80-18.90-18.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     20.70-20.06
S2     19.80-18.90
S3     18.50-18.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     21.05-21.90
R2     22.10-22.50
R3     23.00-23.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.314 Buy
20-DMA   20.64 Buy
50-DMA   20.06 Buy
100-DMA   20.13 Buy
200-DMA   20.13 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.110 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.112 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$80.43/bbl, an intraday low of US$75.25/bbl, and settled up by 0.0948% to close at US$80.20/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 80.90-85.90 with stop loss at 86.00; targeting 84.45-83.70-82.55 and 81.20-80.60-79.50. Buy above 79.00-76.00 with risk daily closing below 76.00; targeting 80.10-81.20-82.50 and 83.40-84.55-85.85.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     79.50-78.70
S2     77.90
S3     77.00-76.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     80.60-81.20
R2     82.55
R3     83.70-85.85

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.370 Sell
20-DMA   86.62 Buy
50-DMA   87.18 Buy
100-DMA   90.02 Sell
200-DMA   90.69 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   37.486 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.501 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

`EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0312/EUR, a high of US$1.0395/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.782% to close at US$1.0324/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0290-1.0545, targeting 1.0210-1.0150 and 1.0105-1.0099-1.0050 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0545. Buy above 1.0210-1.0050 with risk below 1.0050 targeting 1.0350-1.0390-1.0450 and 1.0490-1.0520-1.0546.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0210
S2     1.0150-1.0105
S3     1.0099-1.0050

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0290-1.0390
R2     1.0450-1.0490
R3     1.05201.0546

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   68.782 Buy
20-DMA   1.0040 Sell
50-DMA   0.9980 Buy
100-DMA   1.0088 Buy
200-DMA   1.0386 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   93.455 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0109 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1778/GBP, a high of US$1.1895/GBP, and settled the day down 0.612% to close at US$1.1820/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2113) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.1870-1.1310 with a target of 1.1900-1.1950-1.2030 and 1.2090-1.2120 with a stop loss closing below 1.0640. Sell in between 1.1900-1.2120 with targets at 1.1870-1.1790-1.1750 and 1.1680-1.1610-1.1495 with stop loss should be 1.2120.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1790
S2     1.1750-1.1680
S3     1.1610-1.1495

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.1870-1.1900
R2     1.1950-1.2030
R3     1.2090-1.2120

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.957

Buy
20-DMA   1.1552 Buy
50-DMA   1.1498 Buy
100-DMA   1.1689 Buy
200-DMA   1.2119 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   78.021 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0012 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made an intra‐day low of JPY140.15/USD and made an intraday high of JPY142.24/USD and settled the day up by 1.30% at JPY142.12/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 142.00-144.50 with risk above 144.50 targeting 141.20-140.20-139.50-138.50-137.80 and 137.00-136.60. Long positions above 140.20-136.60 with targets of 140.80-141.20-142.10 and 143.00-143.80-144.50 with stops below 143.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     141.10-140.20
S2     139.20-138.50
S3     137.80–137.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     142.10
R2     143.00-143.80
R3     144.50-145.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.453 Buy
20-DMA   144.67 Buy
50-DMA   144.15 Buy
100-DMA   140.81 Buy
200-DMA   134.44 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   13.733 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.290 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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