AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar held firm on Wednesday, with investors on tenterhooks before the release of minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting which could offer clues on the outlook for inflation and the pace of interest rate hikes.The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six counterparts including the yen, the euro and sterling, was last trading at 107.110, having slipped 0.65% overnight. Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY), said Tuesday's move reflected better risk sentiment, with stocks and bonds rallying on the back of better corporate earnings and expectations of slower rate hikes from the central bank. In China, a spike in COVID-19 cases has clouded hopes for a swift reopening of the world's second largest economy. Shanghai abruptly cancelled an auto industry event on Wednesday, while the city of Chengdu plans to conduct mass testing for residents for five straight days. The dollar retreated across the board on Tuesday, ceding some of the ground gained in the previous session, as investors looked past worries about China's COVID flare-ups, boosting demand for more risky currencies. Equities, commodities and riskier currencies were largely firmer on Tuesday, a day after fresh COVID-19 curbs in China fuelled worries over the global economic outlook. The dollar has rallied against every major currency this year, boosted by the Federal Reserve's supersized interest rate hikes as it battles inflation. But recent cooler-than-expected U.S. consumer price data has spurred investors' hopes that the Fed may be in a position to moderate its pace of hikes. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester reiterated Tuesday that getting inflation down remains critical for the central bank. Investors will be parsing minutes from the Fed's November meeting, due on Wednesday, for any hints about the outlook for interest rates. Sterling was 0.6% higher at $1.1885 after data showed Britain's government borrowed less than expected in October, although the budget deficit is likely to balloon in the months ahead thanks to energy bill support measures and a slowing economy. Genesis said on Monday it has no plans to file for bankruptcy imminently, though Bloomberg News reported, citing sources, that the broker was struggling to raise fresh cash for its lending unit, and warning investors it may need to file for bankruptcy if it does not find funding. The lending unit suspended redemptions last week, citing fallout from the collapse of FTX, which filed for bankruptcy on Nov. 11.
  • The U.S. dollar rose against most major currencies on Monday, recouping recent losses, as fresh COVID-19 curbs in China fuelled worries over the global economic outlook and made traders shun riskier currencies. China's capital warned on Monday that it was facing its most severe test of the COVID-19 pandemic, shutting businesses and schools in hard-hit districts and tightening rules for entering the city as infections ticked higher in Beijing and nationally. The new cases have cast doubt on hopes that the government could soon ease its tough restrictions. That has boosted the dollar, which is seen as a safe haven in times of stress. The dollar found additional support after Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said Monday that the U.S. central bank could lift its overnight target rate above 5% if inflation does not cool off, even thought that's not her expected outcome for monetary policy Analysts also pegged some of the dollar's strength to a rebound following the sharp selloff over the last few weeks that saw the Dollar Index slip as much as 4.7% in November. Cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data had spurred investors' hopes that the Federal Reserve's dollar-boosting interest rate hikes may be set to be moderated. That had prompted traders to take profits on existing long dollar positions. Speculators' bets on the U.S. dollar swung to a net short for the first time in more than a year, according to calculations by Reuters and Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. Investors will be parsing minutes from the Fed's November meeting, due to be released on Wednesday, for any hints about the outlook for interest rates. On Monday, the stronger dollar weighed on Sterling with the British currency slipping 0.5% to $1.18225 against a strengthening U.S. dollar and as investors braced for further weakness for the pound ahead of public finances data due on Tuesday and flash PMI numbers on Wednesday.
  • Oil prices were steady on Wednesday as concerns about lower fuel demand from China amid tightening COVID-19 curbs offset data showing a larger-than-expected U.S. crude draw last week. Both benchmark contracts rose about 1% on Tuesday as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq and Algeria reinforced comments from Saudi Arabia's energy minister that the OPEC and allies, together called OPEC+, were not considering boosting oil output. OPEC+ next meets to review output on Dec. 4. Meanwhile, top crude oil importer China has been grappling with a surge in COVID-19 cases that has deepened worries about its economy. Late on Tuesday, financial hub Shanghai tightened rules for people entering the city while Beijing shut parks and museums. Traders are also being cautious ahead of the release of the U.S. Federal Reserve's minutes from its November policy meeting due at 1900 GMT, CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said. Underpinning oil prices on Wednesday, U.S. crude inventories fell by about 4.8 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 18, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed, according to market sources. Analysts polled by Reuters on average had expected a 1.1 million barrel drawdown in crude inventories. Distillate stocks, which include heating oil and jet fuel, rose by about 1.1 million barrels compared with analysts' expectations for a drop of 600,000 barrels. Uncertainty over how Russia will respond to plans by the Group of Seven (G7) nations to cap Russian oil prices also provided some support to the market. The price cap is due to be announced soon, a senior U.S. Treasury official said on Tuesday, adding that it will probably be adjusted a few times a year.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
23rd November 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,750-1,759 1,774-1,781 1,790-1,800
Silver-XAG 21.20-21.90 22.10-22.50 23.00-23.30
Crude Oil 81.20-81.90 82.55 83.70-85.85
EURO/USD 1.0390 1.0450-1.0490 1.05201.0546
GBP/USD 1.1900-1.1950 1.2030 1.2090-1.2120
USD/JPY 142.10 143.00-143.80 144.50-145.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
23rd November 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,736-1,724 1,716 1,705-1,690
Silver-XAG 20.70-20.06 19.80-18.90 18.50-18.00
Crude Oil 80.60-79.50 78.70-77.90 77.00-76.10
EURO/USD 1.0290-1.0210 1.0150-1.0105 1.0099-1.0050
GBP/USD 1.1870-1.1790 1.1750-1.1680 1.1610-1.1495
USD/JPY 141.10-140.20 139.20-138.50 137.80–137.00

Intra-Day Strategy (23rd November 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1749.63/oz and low of $1737.00/oz. Gold is up by 0.117% at US$1739.92/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1750-1800 keeping stop loss closing above 1800, targeting and 1736-1724 and 1716-1700-1690. Buy in between 1744-1690 with risk below 1640, targeting 1750-1759-1774 and 1781-1790-1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,736-1,724
S2     1,716
S3     1,705-1,690
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,750-1,759
R2     1,774-1,781
R3     1,790-1,800

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

60.234

Buy
20-DMA   1719.17 Buy
50-DMA  

1703.53

Buy
100-DMA   1723.51 Buy
200-DMA   1759.46 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   15.050 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   25.865 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$21.07/oz and low of US20.82/oz settled up by 1.186% at US$21.07/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 21.00-18.30, targeting 22.00-22.50-23.00 and 23.30-23.70 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 22.10-23.40 with stop loss above 23.40; targeting 21.70-21.30-20.70-20.10 and 19.80-18.90-18.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     20.70-20.06
S2     19.80-18.90
S3     18.50-18.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     21.20-21.90
R2     22.10-22.50
R3     23.00-23.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.314 Buy
20-DMA   20.64 Buy
50-DMA   20.06 Buy
100-DMA   20.13 Buy
200-DMA   20.13 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.110 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.112 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$82.27/bbl, an intraday low of US$79.79/bbl, and settled up by 1.039% to close at US$81.04/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 80.90-85.90 with stop loss at 86.00; targeting 84.45-83.70-82.55 and 81.20-80.60-79.50. Buy above 79.00-76.00 with risk daily closing below 76.00; targeting 80.10-81.20-82.50 and 83.40-84.55-85.85.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     80.60-79.50
S2     78.70-77.90
S3     77.00-76.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     81.20-81.90
R2     82.55
R3     83.70-85.85

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.370 Sell
20-DMA   86.62 Buy
50-DMA   87.18 Buy
100-DMA   90.02 Sell
200-DMA   90.69 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   37.486 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.501 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.0239/EUR, a high of US$1.0307/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.615% to close at US$1.0303/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0290-1.0545, targeting 1.0210-1.0150 and 1.0105-1.0099-1.0050 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0545. Buy above 1.0210-1.0050 with risk below 1.0050 targeting 1.0350-1.0390-1.0450 and 1.0490-1.0520-1.0546.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0290-1.0210
S2     1.0150-1.0105
S3     1.0099-1.0050

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0390
R2     1.0450-1.0490
R3     1.05201.0546

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   68.782 Buy
20-DMA   1.0040 Sell
50-DMA   0.9980 Buy
100-DMA   1.0088 Buy
200-DMA   1.0386 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   93.455 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0109 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1816/GBP, a high of US$1.1902/GBP, and settled the day up 0.538% to close at US$1.1884/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2113) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.1870-1.1310 with a target of 1.1900-1.1950-1.2030 and 1.2090-1.2120 with a stop loss closing below 1.0640. Sell in between 1.1900-1.2120 with targets at 1.1870-1.1790-1.1750 and 1.1680-1.1610-1.1495 with stop loss should be 1.2120.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1870-1.1790
S2     1.1750-1.1680
S3     1.1610-1.1495

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.1900-1.1950
R2     1.2030
R3     1.2090-1.2120

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

60.753

Buy
20-DMA   1.1679 Buy
50-DMA   1.1567 Buy
100-DMA   1.1706 Buy
200-DMA   1.2100 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   49.058 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0014 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of JPY140.65/USD and made an intraday high of JPY140.65/USD and settled the day up by 1.30% at JPY142.57/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 142.00-144.50 with risk above 144.50 targeting 141.20-140.20-139.50-138.50-137.80 and 137.00-136.60. Long positions above 140.20-136.60 with targets of 140.80-141.20-142.10 and 143.00-143.80-144.50 with stops below 143.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     141.10-140.20
S2     139.20-138.50
S3     137.80–137.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     142.10
R2     143.00-143.80
R3     144.50-145.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.453 Buy
20-DMA   144.67 Buy
50-DMA   144.15 Buy
100-DMA   140.81 Buy
200-DMA   134.44 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   13.733 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.290 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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