AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar was broadly weaker on Thursday as investors, encouraged by the prospect of a slower pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, placed bets on riskier assets. The eagerly awaited readout of the Nov. 1-2 Fed meeting showed officials were largely satisfied they could now move in smaller steps. The Fed raised its key rate by three-quarters of a percentage point this month, for the fourth straight time in an effort to tame stiflingly high inflation. But slightly cooler-than-expected U.S. consumer price data has stoked hopes of a more moderate pace of hikes. Those hopes have seen the dollar index slide 5.1% in November, putting it on track for its worst monthly performance in 12 years. Citi strategists said there is still substantial uncertainty around how high rates might climb, despite the consensus that rates will rise more slowly. The minutes also showed an emerging debate within the Fed over the risks that rapid policy tightening could pose to economic growth and financial stability. At the same time, policymakers acknowledged there had been little demonstrable progress on inflation and that rates still needed to rise. Data on Wednesday showed U.S. business activity contracted for a fifth straight month in November, with a measure of new orders dropping to its lowest level in 2-1/2 years as higher interest rates slowed demand. CBA's Kong cautioned, however, that the markets are too optimistic about a possible imminent end to the tightening cycle and noted there was still heavy support for the U.S. dollar due to China's zero-COVID polices. Rising coronavirus cases have led Chinese cities to impose more curbs, increasing investor worries about the economy and putting a lid on risk appetite. China reported a record number of infections on Thursday. U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and liquidity will likely be thinner than usual.
  • The U.S. dollar fell across the board on Wednesday, after minutes from the Federal Reserve's November meeting showed that most policymakers at the central bank agreed it would soon be appropriate to slow the pace of interest rate hikes.The readout of the Nov. 1-2 meeting, at which the Fed raised its key rate by three-quarters of a percent for the fourth straight time in an effort to combat decades-high inflation, showed officials were largely satisfied they could stop front-loading the rate increases and move in smaller steps. The minutes also showed an emerging debate within the Fed over the risks the rapid policy tightening could pose to economic growth and financial stability, even as policymakers acknowledged there had been little demonstrable progress on inflation and that rates still needed to rise. Data on Wednesday showed U.S. business activity contracted for a fifth straight month in November, with a measure of new orders dropping to its lowest level in 2-1/2 years as higher interest rates slowed demand. Other data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, even though labor market conditions remain tight. This year, the dollar has rallied against every major currency, boosted by the Fed's supersized rate hikes. But recent cooler-than-expected U.S. consumer price data has spurred investors' hopes that the Fed may be in a position to moderate its pace of hikes. Sterling shot higher on Wednesday, rising for a second straight day against the dollar after preliminary British economic activity data beat expectations, though it still showed contraction was underway.
  • Oil prices hovered near two-month lows on Thursday after easing concerns over Russian supply and a worsening economic outlook drove sharp losses this week, although weakness in the dollar on dovish signals from the Federal Reserve helped reduce some selling pressure. Crude markets plummeted on Wednesday after the Group of Seven nations, or G7, was seen imposing a much higher-than-expected price cap on Russian oil sales. The move saw traders greatly cutting expectations that a strict price cap would have forced Moscow to drastically cut oil production, in order to avoid selling at a loss. Weak economic data from the U.S., coupled with record-high COVID-19 infection rates in China also painted a dour picture for crude demand. U.S. business activity shrank further in November, preliminary data showed on Wednesday, as the economy faces growing headwinds from high interest rates and stubborn inflation. Low trading volumes, on account of the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. this week, also spurred big moves in crude markets. But dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, which weighed on the dollar, helped oil markets stabilize after steep losses. Members of the central bank voiced increasing support for a slower pace of interest rate hikes in the coming months, the minutes of the Fed’s November meeting showed. The dollar tumbled 1% on Wednesday after the minutes, which eased some price pressure on commodities that are priced in the greenback. Growing expectations of a weaker dollar also benefit crude markets by supporting demand in countries that pay dollars for crude imports. Still, demand-side indicators for oil appear to be weakening. In addition to the weak business activity data, U.S. gasoline inventories - a key indicator of fuel demand at the pump - grew much more than expected last week. Overall U.S. crude inventories shrank by a bigger-than-expected margin during the past week, even as the government drew about 2 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The Biden administration also appears to be lowering the pace of its drawdowns from the SPR, which is at its lowest level since 1984. Focus now turns to a meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries next month, to see whether the cartel will announce more supply cuts to help support crude prices.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
24th November 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,759 1,774-1,781 1,790-1,800
Silver-XAG 21.90 22.10-22.50 23.00-23.30
Crude Oil 77.90-78.70 79.50-80.60 81.20-81.90
EURO/USD 1.0450-1.0490 1.0520-1.0550 1.0610-1.0650
GBP/USD 1.2090-1.2120 1.2200 1.2280-1.2350
USD/JPY 142.10 143.00-143.80 144.50-145.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
24th November 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,750-1,736 1,724-1,716 1,705-1,690
Silver-XAG 21.20-20.70 20.06-19.80 18.90-18.50
Crude Oil 77.00-76.10 75.25 74.20-73.00
EURO/USD 1.0390-1.0290 1.0210-1.0150 1.0105-1.0099
GBP/USD 1.2030-1.1950 1.1870-1.1790 1.1750-1.1680
USD/JPY 141.10-140.20 139.20-138.50 137.80–137.00

Intra-Day Strategy (24th November 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1753.17/oz and low of $1726.08/oz. Gold is up by 0.546% at US$1749.40/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1755-1800 keeping stop loss closing above 1800, targeting and 1750-1736-1724 and 1716-1700-1690. Buy in between 1744-1690 with risk below 1640, targeting 1750-1759-1774 and 1781-1790-1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,750-1,736
S2     1,724-1,716
S3     1,705-1,690
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,759
R2     1,774-1,781
R3     1,790-1,800

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.319

Buy
20-DMA   1726.07 Buy
50-DMA  

1708.25

Buy
100-DMA   1724.77 Buy
200-DMA   1759.03 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   40.762 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   22.464 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$21.58/oz and low of US20.90/oz settled up by 2.15% at US$21.52/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 21.20-18.30, targeting 22.00-22.50-23.00 and 23.30-23.70 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 22.10-23.40 with stop loss above 23.40; targeting 21.70-21.30-20.70-20.10 and 19.80-18.90-18.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     21.20-20.70
S2     20.06-19.80
S3     18.90-18.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     21.90
R2     22.10-22.50
R3     23.00-23.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   61.882 Buy
20-DMA   20.84 Buy
50-DMA   20.22 Buy
100-DMA   20.21 Buy
200-DMA   20.95 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   67.450 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.4775 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$81.86/bbl, an intraday low of US$79.79/bbl, and settled up by 4.44% to close at US$77.41/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 80.90-85.90 with stop loss at 86.00; targeting 84.45-83.70-82.55 and 81.20-80.60-79.50. Buy above 79.00-76.00 with risk daily closing below 76.00; targeting 80.10-81.20-82.50 and 83.40-84.55-85.85.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     77.00-76.10
S2     75.25
S3     74.20-73.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     77.90-78.70
R2     79.50-80.60
R3     81.20-81.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.370 Sell
20-DMA   86.62 Buy
50-DMA   87.18 Buy
100-DMA   90.02 Sell
200-DMA   90.69 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   37.486 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.501 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0296/EUR, a high of US$1.0404/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.894% to close at US$1.0395/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0450-1.0650, targeting 1.0390-1.0290-1.0210 and 1.0150-1.0105-1.0099 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0545. Buy above 1.0390-1.0050 with risk below 1.0050 targeting 1.0450-1.0490-1.0520 and 1.0550-1.0610-1.0650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0390-1.0290
S2     1.0210-1.0150
S3     1.0105-1.0099

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0450-1.0490
R2     1.0520-1.0550
R3     1.0610-1.0650

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   66.673 Buy
20-DMA   1.0199 Sell
50-DMA   1.0072 Buy
100-DMA   1.0123 Buy
200-DMA   1.0384 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   75.179 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0131 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1871/GBP, a high of US$1.2080/GBP, and settled the day up 1.408% to close at US$1.2051/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2113) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2030-1.1680 with a target of 1.2090-1.2120-1.2200 and 1.2280-1.2350 with a stop loss closing below 1.1680. Sell in between 1.2090-1.2350 with targets at 1.2030-1.1950-1.1870 and 1.1790-1.1750-1.1680 with stop loss should be 1.2350.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2030-1.1950
S2     1.1870-1.1790
S3     1.1750-1.1680

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2090-1.2120
R2     1.2200
R3     1.2280-1.2350

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

65.803

Buy
20-DMA   1.1732 Buy
50-DMA   1.1593 Buy
100-DMA   1.1717 Buy
200-DMA   1.2101 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   85.058 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0014 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of JPY140.65/USD and made an intraday high of JPY140.65/USD and settled the day up by 1.30% at JPY142.57/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 142.00-144.50 with risk above 144.50 targeting 141.20-140.20-139.50-138.50-137.80 and 137.00-136.60. Long positions above 140.20-136.60 with targets of 140.80-141.20-142.10 and 143.00-143.80-144.50 with stops below 143.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     141.10-140.20
S2     139.20-138.50
S3     137.80–137.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     142.10
R2     143.00-143.80
R3     144.50-145.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.453 Buy
20-DMA   144.67 Buy
50-DMA   144.15 Buy
100-DMA   140.81 Buy
200-DMA   134.44 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   13.733 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.290 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING