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Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar extended losses on Thursday after the minutes from the Federal Reserve's November meeting supported the view that the central bank would downshift and raise rates in smaller steps from its December meeting. The eagerly awaited readout of the Nov. 1-2 meeting showed officials were largely satisfied they could now move in smaller steps, with a 50 basis point rate rise likely next month after four consecutive 75 basis point increases. The Fed has taken interest rates to levels not seen since 2008 but slightly cooler-than-expected U.S. consumer price data has stoked expectations of a more moderate pace of hikes. Those hopes have seen the dollar index slide 5.2% in November, putting it on track for its worst monthly performance in 12 years. The euro held onto gains after the account of the European Central Bank's October meeting showed policymakers feared that inflation may be getting entrenched, justifying their outlook for further rate hikes. The single currency was last up 0.2% at $1.0415, while sterling was trading at $1.2135, up 0.7% on the day. The pound rallied 1.4% on Wednesday after preliminary British economic activity data beat expectations, although it still showed that a contraction was under way. The euro weakened 0.4% against the Swedish krone after Sweden's Riksbank raised rates by 75 basis points, in line with expectations in a Reuters poll, but signalled additional hikes would be needed to fight surging inflation. The yuan [CNY/] firmed after Chinese state media quoted the cabinet as saying that Beijing will use timely cuts in banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR), alongside other monetary policy tools, to keep liquidity reasonably ample. Meanwhile, billionaire investor Bill Ackman said he's betting the Hong Kong dollar will fall and that its peg to the U.S. dollar could break. Since May, the Hong Kong dollar has been pinned near the weaker end of its band, although it has lifted a bit in recent weeks as markets start to price a peak in U.S. rates. It was last at 7.8102 per dollar. U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and liquidity will likely be thinner than usual.
  • The U.S. dollar edged lower in early European trade Thursday, continuing the previous session's selloff after the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting signaled a slowdown in future rate hikes. The dollar saw selling after the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting revealed that a "substantial majority" of policymakers expected a slowing in the pace of rate hikes to soon be appropriate The Fed raised its key rate by three-quarters of a percentage point earlier this month, for the fourth straight time in an effort to tame soaring inflation, but the minutes largely cemented expectations for a 50-basis-point hike in early December. Eurozone inflation soared above 10% in October, but the November PMIs pointed to the region entering recession, creating a dilemma for the ECB policymakers. The ECB will certainly raise its interest rates considerably, though how far it ultimately goes will depend on how the economic situation develops, the head of Germany's Ifo economic institute said on Tuesday. Also of interest will be the German Ifo business climate index, with traders looking to see the degree of business confidence in the most important economy in the Eurozone.
  • Oil prices rose in Asia on Friday, despite thin market liquidity, after a week marked by worries about Chinese demand and haggling over a Western price cap on Russian oil. Both contracts were still headed for their third consecutive weekly decline, on track to fall about 2% with worries about tight supply easing. On the Russian oil price cap, G7 and European Union diplomats have been discussing levels between $65 and $70 a barrel, with the aim of limiting revenue to fund Moscow's military offensive in Ukraine without disrupting global oil markets. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Moscow will not supply oil and gas to any countries that join in imposing the price cap, which the Kremlin reiterated on Thursday. Trading is expected to remain cautious ahead of an agreement on the price cap, due to come into effect on Dec. 5 when an EU ban on Russian crude kicks off, and ahead of the next meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, on Dec. 4. In October, OPEC+ agreed to reduce its output target by 2 million barrels per day through 2023, and Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman was quoted saying this week that OPEC+ was ready to cut output further if needed. Meanwhile, there are growing signs that a surge in COVID-19 cases in China, the world's top oil importer, is starting to hit fuel demand, with traffic drifting down and implied oil demand around 13 million barrels per day, or 1 million bpd lower than average, an ANZ note showed. China on Friday reported a new daily record for COVID-19 infections, as cities across the country continued enforce mobility measures and other curbs to control outbreaks. "This remains a headwind for oil demand that, combined with weakness in the U.S. dollar, is creating a negative backdrop for oil prices," ANZ said in a separate commodity note.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
25th November 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,759 1,774-1,781 1,790-1,800
Silver-XAG 21.90 22.10-22.50 23.00-23.30
Crude Oil 78.70-79.50 80.60 81.20-81.90
EURO/USD 1.0450-1.0490 1.0520-1.0550 1.0610-1.0650
GBP/USD 1.2120-1.2200 1.2280 1.2350-1.2400
USD/JPY 139.20-140.20 141.10-142.10 143.00-143.80

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
25th November 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,750-1,736 1,724-1,716 1,705-1,690
Silver-XAG 21.20-20.70 20.06-19.80 18.90-18.50
Crude Oil 77.90-77.00 76.10-75.25 74.20-73.00
EURO/USD 1.0390-1.0290 1.0210-1.0150 1.0105-1.0099
GBP/USD 1.2090-1.2030 1.1950-1.1870 1.1790--1.1750
USD/JPY 138.50 137.70–137.00 136.50

Intra-Day Strategy (25th November 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1758.54/oz and low of $1748.91/oz. Gold is up by 0329% at US$1755.20/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1755-1800 keeping stop loss closing above 1800, targeting and 1750-1736-1724 and 1716-1700-1690. Buy in between 1744-1690 with risk below 1640, targeting 1750-1759-1774 and 1781-1790-1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,750-1,736
S2     1,724-1,716
S3     1,705-1,690
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,759
R2     1,774-1,781
R3     1,790-1,800

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.319

Buy
20-DMA   1726.07 Buy
50-DMA  

1708.25

Buy
100-DMA   1724.77 Buy
200-DMA   1759.03 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   40.762 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   22.464 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$21.67/oz and low of US21.45/oz settled down by 0.111% at US$21.48/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 21.20-18.30, targeting 22.00-22.50-23.00 and 23.30-23.70 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 22.10-23.40 with stop loss above 23.40; targeting 21.70-21.30-20.70-20.10 and 19.80-18.90-18.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     21.20-20.70
S2     20.06-19.80
S3     18.90-18.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     21.90
R2     22.10-22.50
R3     23.00-23.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   61.882 Buy
20-DMA   20.84 Buy
50-DMA   20.22 Buy
100-DMA   20.21 Buy
200-DMA   20.95 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   67.450 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.4775 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$78.21/bbl, an intraday low of US$76.91/bbl, and settled up by 0.860% to close at US$78.14/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 78.70-85.90 with stop loss at 86.00; targeting 77.90-77.00-76.10 and 75.25-74.20-73.00. Buy above 77.90-73.00 with risk daily closing below 73.00; targeting 78.70-79.50-80.60n and 81.20-82.50-83.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     77.90-77.00
S2     76.10-75.25
S3     74.20-73.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     78.70-79.50
R2     80.60
R3     81.20-81.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.105 Sell
20-DMA   82.95 Buy
50-DMA   85.28 Buy
100-DMA   88.44 Sell
200-DMA   89.82 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   35.053 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.501 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0381/EUR, a high of US$1.0448/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.077% to close at US$1.0403/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0450-1.0650, targeting 1.0390-1.0290-1.0210 and 1.0150-1.0105-1.0099 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0545. Buy above 1.0390-1.0050 with risk below 1.0050 targeting 1.0450-1.0490-1.0520 and 1.0550-1.0610-1.0650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0390-1.0290
S2     1.0210-1.0150
S3     1.0105-1.0099

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0450-1.0490
R2     1.0520-1.0550
R3     1.0610-1.0650

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   66.673 Buy
20-DMA   1.0199 Sell
50-DMA   1.0072 Buy
100-DMA   1.0123 Buy
200-DMA   1.0384 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   75.179 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0131 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2046/GBP, a high of US$1.2153/GBP, and settled the day up 0.464% to close at US$1.2107/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2113) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2090-1.1680 with a target of 1.2090-1.2120-1.2200 and 1.2280-1.2350 with a stop loss closing below 1.1680. Sell in between 1.2120-1.2350 with targets at 1.2030-1.1950-1.1870 and 1.1790-1.1750-1.1680 with stop loss should be 1.2350.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2090-1.2030
S2     1.1950-1.1870
S3     1.1790--1.1750

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2120-1.2200
R2     1.2280
R3     1.2350-1.2400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

66.416

Buy
20-DMA   1.1770 Buy
50-DMA   1.1614 Buy
100-DMA   1.1725 Buy
200-DMA   1.2102 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   89.467 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0014 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made an intra‐day low of JPY138.04/USD and made an intraday high of JPY139.61/USD and settled the day up by 1.30% at JPY138.46/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 142.00-144.50 with risk above 144.50 targeting 141.20-140.20-139.50-138.50-137.80 and 137.00-136.60. Long positions above 140.20-136.60 with targets of 140.80-141.20-142.10 and 143.00-143.80-144.50 with stops below 143.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     138.50
S2     137.70–137.00
S3     136.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     139.20-140.20
R2     141.10-142.10
R3     143.00-143.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.453 Buy
20-DMA   144.67 Buy
50-DMA   144.15 Buy
100-DMA   140.81 Buy
200-DMA   134.44 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   13.733 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.290 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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