AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar slipped on Thursday with investors on edge at the end of the year as initial optimism over China's reopening fizzled out and as markets processed a readout of U.S. jobless claims. Markets are weighing the impact of China's rapid loosening of its strict COVID-19 rules with a surge in new infections. Following China's removal of its quarantine rule for inbound travelers from Jan. 8, the United States, Japan, India and other countries said they would require COVID tests for travelers from China. That drop may have been a reaction to fresh U.S. jobless claims numbers on Thursday, said Steve Englander, head of G10 FX research at Standard Chartered. The Labor Department found that the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid rose to 1.710 million in the week ending Dec. 17. Those so-called continuing claims, a proxy for hiring, have drifted higher since early October. But analysts warned against reading too much into price moves amid low trading volumes as markets head into the new year. Investors are likely eager for the fresh information that 2023 will bring, said Craig Erlam, markets analyst at currency platform Oanda.
  • The U.S. dollar edged slightly lower on Thursday in reduced European trading, as the U.S. and Italy joined a list of countries to require COVID-19 testing by incoming travelers from China. Authorities in Washington and Rome, as well as India, have now said that they will make people coming into these nations from China take COVID-19 tests. Beijing had previously announced that it will remove quarantine rules for inbound travelers starting on January 8, sparking hopes that the world's second-largest economy may be moving past an era of strict coronavirus regulations. But this optimism is showing signs of fading as cases spread across the country. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen rallied to 133.61 per dollar, nearly canceling out a loss of 0.7% on Wednesday. Analysts at Resona Holdings said an announcement from the BOJ earlier in December that it will loosen its 10-year Japanese government bond yield band has fuelled speculation that the central bank will tighten monetary policy further next year. Elsewhere, the Russian ruble touched its lowest mark against the U.S. dollar since April, as worries increase that key export revenues will be hit by sanctions on the country's oil and gas.
  • Oil prices edged up on Friday and were on track to post their second straight annual gains, albeit modest, in a stormy year marked by tight supplies due to the Ukraine war, a strong dollar and weakening demand from the world's top crude importer China. While an increase in year-end holiday travel and Russia's ban on crude and oil product sales are supportive of oil prices, declining consumption due to a deteriorating economic environment next year will offset supply tightness, said CMC Markets analyst Leon Li. Oil prices cooled quickly in the second half this year as central banks across the world hiked interest rates to fight inflation, boosting the U.S. dollar. That made dollar-denominated commodities a more costly investment for holders of other currencies. Also, China's zero-COVID restrictions, which were only eased in December, squashed oil demand recovery hopes for the world's No. 2 consumer. While China is expected to slowly recover in 2023, a surge in COVID cases in the country and global recession concerns are clouding the commodities demand outlook. In response to China's surge in COVID cases, several countries including the United States, South Korea and Japan have imposed mandatory COVID tests on travellers from China. A health data firm estimated that around 9,000 people in China are probably dying from COVID each day, as infections spread in the world's most populous nation. Looking ahead on supplies, western sanctions will push Russia to divert more crude and refined products exports from Europe to Asia. In the United States, output growth in top oil-producing states has slowed despite higher prices. Inflation, supply chain snags and economic uncertainty have led executives to lower their expectations, the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
30th December 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,826-1,834 1,840-1,849 1,849-1860
Silver-XAG 24.35 24.90 25.50-25.90
Crude Oil 79.90-80.50 81.40-82.35 83.20-84.35
EURO/USD 1.0660-1.0720 1.0790-1.0830 1.0900-1.0940
GBP/USD 1.2120 1.2170-1.2290 1.2350-1.2410
USD/JPY 134.10-134.90 135.40 136.00-138.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
30th December 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,814-1,800 1,790-1,781 1,774-1,764
Silver-XAG 23.90-23.00 22.50 22.20-21.90
Crude Oil 78.10-77.00 76.10 74.50-74.10
EURO/USD 1.0580 1.0520-1.0490 1.0450-1.0390
GBP/USD 1.2030-1.1990 1.1950-1.1890 1.0850-1.0800
USD/JPY 131.90-131.10 130.40 129.50-129.00

Intra-Day Strategy (30th December 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1820.06/oz and low of $1803.56/oz. Gold is up by 0.586% at US$1814.70/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1824-1879 keeping stop loss closing above 1879, targeting 1808-1790-1774 and 1759-1750-1736. Buy in between 1808-1768 with risk below 1750, targeting 1826-1834-1847.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,814-1,800
S2     1,790-1,781
S3     1,774-1,764
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,826-1,834
R2     1,840-1,849
R3     1,849-1860

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

57.518

Buy
20-DMA   1791.09 Buy
50-DMA  

1760.41

Buy
100-DMA   1749.96 Buy
200-DMA   1765.61 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   49.179 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   16.330 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$24.05/oz and low of US23.51/oz settled up by 1.516% at US$23.89/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.60-20.30, targeting 23.30-23.60 and 24.00-24.40-25.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 20.00. Sell in between 24.00-25.00 with stop loss above 25.00; targeting 22.10-21.70 and 21.30-20.70-20.10.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.90-23.00
S2     22.50
S3     22.20-21.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.35
R2     24.90
R3     25.50-25.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.463 Buy
20-DMA   23.18 Buy
50-DMA   22.05 Buy
100-DMA   21.31 Buy
200-DMA   21.40 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   51.249 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.604 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$78.84/bbl, an intraday low of US$76.83/bbl, and settled down by 0.0951% to close at US$78.74/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 80.00-81.40 with stop loss at 81.60; targeting 78.60-77.00-76.10-75.25 and 74.10-73.30-72.60. Buy above 78.10-71.70 with risk daily closing below 71.00; targeting 78.60 and 79.70-80.50-81.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     78.10-77.00
S2     76.10
S3     74.50-74.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     79.90-80.50
R2     81.40-82.35
R3     83.20-84.35

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.258 Sell
20-DMA   77.81 Sell
50-DMA   80.24 Sell
100-DMA   84.16 Sell
200-DMA   87.14 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   60.848 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.519 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0605/EUR, a high of US$1.0690/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.458% to close at US$1.0660/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0650-1.0930, targeting 1.0610-1.0580-1.0520 and 1.0490-1.0450-1.0390 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0940. Buy above 1.0610-1.0390 with risk below 1.0390 targeting 1.0650-1.0720-1.0790 and 1.0830-1.0900-1.0940.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0580
S2     1.0520-1.0490
S3     1.0450-1.0390

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0660-1.0720
R2     1.0790-1.0830
R3     1.0900-1.0940

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   61.310 Buy
20-DMA   1.0558 Sell
50-DMA   1.0384 Buy
100-DMA   1.0293 Buy
200-DMA   1.0421 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   46.295 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0081 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2009/GBP, a high of US$1.2078/GBP, and settled the day up 0.323% to close at US$1.2053/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2113) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2030-1.0800 with a target of 1.2090-1.2120-1.2170 and 1.2280-1.2350-1.2410 with a stop loss closing below 1.1950. Sell in between 1.2120-1.2410 with targets at 1.2030-1.1950-1.1870 and 1.0850-1.0800 with stop loss should be 1.2630.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2030-1.1990
S2     1.1950-1.1890
S3     1.0850-1.0800

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2120
R2     1.2170-1.2290
R3     1.2350-1.2410

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.122

Buy
20-DMA   1.2087 Buy
50-DMA   1.1931 Buy
100-DMA   1.1880 Buy
200-DMA   1.211 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.944 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0035 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made an intra‐day low of JPY132.87/USD and made an intraday high of JPY134.46/USD and settled the day down by 1.079% at JPY133.01/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 134.10-136.00 with risk above 136.00 targeting 132.90-131.90-131.10 and 130.40-129.50-129.00. Long positions above 131.90-129.00 with targets of 132.90-134.10-134.90 and 135.40-136.00-137.70 with stops below 129.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     131.90-131.10
S2     130.40
S3     129.50-129.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     134.10-134.90
R2     135.40
R3     136.00-138.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.943 Buy
20-DMA   135.22 Buy
50-DMA   138.12 Buy
100-DMA   138.63 Buy
200-DMA   134.98 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   88.583 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.746 Sell

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